Santa Clara County 2026 Market Outlook | What Buyers & Sellers Should Expect

The 2026 Market Outlook

When I sit down to write the Santa Clara County 2026 Market Outlook, I picture a familiar scene: a family at the kitchen table, laptop open, a few tabs pulled up, and one big question in the air—“Is 2026 finally our year?”

And honestly? The Santa Clara County 2026 Market Outlook is giving me a cautious yes… with one important reminder: national headlines matter, but in Silicon Valley, the neighborhood, the street, and the school pocket can matter more than the averages.

Market chart on laptop symbolizing the 2026 market outlook

Santa Clara County 2026 Market Outlook: What Economists Are Predicting (and Why I’m Watching)

I follow economist forecasts because they shape what buyers and sellers feel first: confidence, affordability, and momentum.

Lawrence Yun (National Association of REALTORS®): More Sales, Modest Price Growth

NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun expects existing-home sales could rise about 14% in 2026, with home prices up around 4%, and mortgage rates averaging roughly 6%.*

What that suggests in real life:
If rates hold closer to “normal,” more homeowners stop feeling stuck. More listings come to market. Buyers who paused start touring again. The market doesn’t become easy—but it becomes more possible.

Want to read the forecasts?

Mortgage Rates and the 2026 Market Outlook: Why a Small Shift Matters

Freddie Mac reported the 30-year fixed rate averaged 6.16% (Jan 8, 2026).* That number may sound small, but in Santa Clara County pricing, it can change buying power fast.

Here’s what I see when rates drift down:

more buyers re-enter the market
showing activity increases
the best homes (location + condition + layout) get attention first

Track weekly rates here:

https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms

Santa Clara County Numbers: What They Mean for Buyers and Sellers

Santa Clara County’s most recent snapshot (single-family resale, Dec 2025):

Median price: $1,830,000 (about -1.1% YoY)*
Average price: $2,342,860 (+1.4% YoY)*
Closed sales: 437 (about -7.4% YoY)*
Active listings: 304 (about +15.2% YoY)*
Sale-to-list: ~103.1%*
Days to contract: ~28 days*
Days of inventory: ~21 days*

Full local report:

https://scc.rereport.com/market_reports

What this means (without the jargon)

If you only remember one thing, remember this: 21 days of inventory is still tight. That’s why a home that’s well-prepared and priced correctly can still move quickly and command strong terms.

But active listings being up year-over-year is the market quietly saying: we’re thawing. When buyers have more options, they become more selective—especially about condition and value.

Santa Clara County 2026 Market Outlook for Buyers

In 2026, I expect a split market to continue:

Turnkey, well-located homes can still spark competition
homes that are overpriced, under-prepped, or challenging may sit longer and create opportunity

Buyer strategy I’m recommending this year:

watch rates weekly (your payment can change quickly)
be ready to move fast on the right home
negotiate smartly when a listing is stale or overpriced

Santa Clara County 2026 Market Outlook for Sellers

In a rate-sensitive environment, buyers get picky. That means preparation becomes your pricing power. The homes that feel “easy” (clean, staged, repaired, documented) stand out immediately.

I always say: your first 10–14 days are your launch window. That’s when you want the most attention and the most urgency.

For your personal Home Equity Plan, visit me Here

A Personal Note From Me

Wendy Marioni

I’ve lived in Santa Clara County for more than 40 years, and I’ve spent 21 years negotiating high-stakes real estate transactions here—through booming markets, shifting markets, and the kind of markets that make people feel stuck.

What I know is this: real estate isn’t just about numbers. It’s about life.
It’s about the baby you’re planning for, the parents you’re moving closer to, the commute you want back, the school decision, the inheritance, the new job, or the simple feeling that you’re ready for your next chapter.

That’s why I approach every client relationship with strategy, transparency, and calm guidance—and why my clients know they’re supported from day one through closing (and beyond). If you want a plan that’s specific to your neighborhood, your timing, and your goals, I’m here.

Click Here To schedule your strategy call and start 2026 working for you.

Wendy Marioni
Luxury REALTOR® | Santa Clara County
“The Most Supported Move You’ll Make.”

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